Raceday focus: Best bets, analysis, latest odds for Caulfield

TAB form expert Nick Quinn’s suggested bets in the main feature races at Bendigo and Rosehill.

BEST BET: Alfa Oro (Caulfield, R6 No.6)

VALUE BET: Pretty Brazen (Caulfield, R8, No.6)

LAY OF THE WEEK: Agreeable (Caulfield, R2, No.4)

EASTER CUP (GROUP 3, 2000M)

Caulfield, R7, 4.14PM

The meteoric rise for Persan continues.

Since breaking his maiden at Bendigo last May he has had 11 starts for seven wins, three runner-up placings and a gallant fifth in the Melbourne Cup.

He defied a betting drift to salute at The Valley first-up and looks well placed to register another victory.

He opened $3.70 and has trimmed up to be a $3.50 market leader.

There has been early money for Platoon, who has been backed from $8.50 into $7.50.

He’s on the quick back-up after running second to Ironclad in the Bendigo Mile last Saturday.

There are a stack of quality stayers resuming or at the early stages of their preparation who have the talent to win here.

I can make a case for Hang Man at double-figure odds.

He comes into the race having won two of his past three starts including dead-heating with classy Defibrillate and then a last-start win the Yarra Valley Cup.

He is worth including at around $13.

THE TIP: PERSAN the win

Persan won last start at The Valley. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

VICTORIA HANDICAP (GROUP 3, 1400M)

Caulfield, R8, 4.55PM

One of the most open Victoria Handicaps I’ve seen with Pretty Brazen backed from $10 into $7 to head the market at that quote.

She resumed from a spell with a narrow defeat at Flemington and had to work early from the wide gate but was still in the finish. She should spike second-up where she is a prior winner.

Age Of Chivalry is on the second line of betting at $8.

He was heavily backed at The Valley last start but was ran off his legs in a race won by the classy Ancestry.

Riddle Me That is another runner who comes out of the Ancestry race at The Valley when finishing second at big odds. He again holds each-way claims.

So Si Bon must be respected, the once maligned galloper has won two of his past four starts and is an $11 chance.

THE TIP: PRETTY BRAZEN each-way

Pretty Brazen has won second-up. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

TANCRED STAKES (GROUP 1, 4.35PM)

Rosehill, R7, 4.35PM

The early money has come for 2020 Cox Plate winner Sir Dragonet to win his second Australian race in the Group 1 Tancred Stakes.

He was $11 into $9 in pre-post markets and has been backed from $6 into a $5 favourite since the barrier draw.

After transferring from Aidan O’Brien to Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, Sir Dragonet enjoyed a magnificent spring winning the Cox Plate before running a strong sixth in the Melbourne Cup.

His autumn form to date has been poor, he was beaten 9.9 lengths first-up in the Orr Stakes and was equally as disappointing in the All-Star Mile.

He showed good improvement last Saturday when fourth behind superstars Verry Elleegant and Addeybb in the Ranvet Stajkes.

Kiwi superstar Melody Belle is on her farewell tour and the 14-time Group 1 winner is on the second line of betting at $6.50.

She has been tremendous this campaign in her homeland with two Group 1 victories and having shocking luck in the Herbie Dyke when finishing ninth.

The one concern though is that she is without a win in Sydney from six starts – finishing

fifth, ninth, fourth, sixth, last and 11th.

Angel Of Truth is on the quick back-up after running out of her skin at Rosehill last week in the Ranvet.

An intriguing runner is Nickajack Cave who is finally set to make his Australian debut for new trainer Peter Moody.

He was well-backed in pre-post betting for the 2020 Melbourne Cup but failed to gain a start.

He has won his past two starts at Leopardstown in Ireland, the most recent over 2414m in August.

THE TIP: ANGEL OF TRUTH each-way

Originally published asQuinny’s Mailbag: Brazen call in tough contest

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