The least experienced runner in the race shapes as the one to beat in the seventh event where the Kris Lees-trained three-year-old Tawfiq Lass puts an unbeaten second-up record on the line.
Race 7 No. 7: Tawfiq Lass
She got terrible luck first-up when squeezed out of a runs just as she was putting herself into the race. She’s won two second-up from as many attempts so she’s hard to back against today.
Race 5 No. 2: Our Little Louie
There’s a few hopes here but this four-year-old was impressive in making a long run last start when second. If he doesn’t need to go as early today he can go one better.
Race 3 No. 14: L’esperance Rock
She did nothing at her two runs during her first campaign but she’s only three and still has improvement in her which is what her trial showed.
Race 5: 2, 3, 9, 10
Race 6: 7, 8
Race 7: 5, 7
Race 8: 5, 8, 9, 12
TRAINER TO WATCH
Brett Cavanough four horses, Lapseki, Velvet Star, Who Runs The World, and Dubai Tycoon, will give their events a shake. Who Runs The World is the most interesting of the lot.
JOCKEY TO WATCH
Apprentice Reece Jones can start off the day in winning fashion and an upset win in Itasca in race four wouldn’t surprise.
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!
There’s not a lot of horses bringing good form into this race but My Khaleesi is one of them after placing at her past five runs. She is dropping back to 1400m from four-straight 1600m races where she’s been getting back and hitting the line hard. Lapseki is on the quick back up after trying hard but coming up short when second at this track last week. Has to be in this off that run. Stable Talk exploded out of the gates in that same race and was able to find the box seat but was no match for Lapseki but he gets a 2.5kg pull in the weights this time but will need all that gate speed again from barrier 13.
Bet: My Khaleesi to win
Tornado Light is getting to 1400m third-up after a bright start to her career with a win and placing and if she’s the type who just gets better with each run she’ll take some beating in a race with a stack of out of form horses going around. Syzygy Stars won on debut too and that was at the provincials but being no match for them in town but this is a huge drops back in grade. The only thing of concern is the very wide gate. If she gets luck she can win this. Sedgemoor is in her sixth different stable at start nine but he’s won a midweek race in town before a long break but has shown enough of late to consider.
Bet: Syzygy Stars to win
Jappalouis is the one that is going to start over the odds for leading trainer Cody Morgan who said he wouldn’t be surprised if the debutant ran well above his starting price and he’s thrown the blinkers on straight away. London Ruler ran into a good horse on debut then really improve second-up when ridden positive which will be the aim again today and he should race better again. Mooki Beauty will appreciate 1200m now and she’ll be hitting the line again from a closer position in the run. L’esperance Rock has come back great going by her trial.
Bet: L’esperance Rock to win
Toulon Brook carries the same weight after winning last start at this trip and in this grade. He won’t mind the wet track but will find it hard to win if it’s bottomless. Theo Legion hasn’t run poorly for Paul Perry for a little while now and he’ll thrive in today’s track conditions as he sees the circuit for the first time in a race. Tough to beat. Vanbari will threaten with better luck as will Itasca who is going to start overs going up in trip which is appreciated.
Bet: Itasca each way
Sheer Success is a horse with wins around the corner and today might be her day to breakthrough at start three where she’ll like 1000m from a good gate where she should get the run of the race. Polylithic only just got run down late on debut at Newcastle but got barrier one that day and is out in the carpark this time. I thought Our Little Louie could win last start at Grafton but he had to make long run from home and did well to run second. Cody Morgan says Ezekeil is his best hope today.
Bet: Quinella 2, 9
Mr Cruise is going well but wants the track to dry out to be a genuine winning chance. Who Runs The World hasn’t been seen for three months since running first in Victoria. He’s with new trainer Brett Cavanough and he won’t go backwards under his care. Fox On The Rocks also returns with the blinkers on for the first time and she trialled like a horse that would come back and win a race or two this time in. Invincible Ninja will try and lead all the way.
Bet: Who Runs The World to win
Tawfiq Lass wasn’t given a chance to win first-up after being chopped out of it at a crucial point in the straight before she got going again to finish off well. She’s undefeated second-up from two attempts. Big chance. Melik has no luck with the barriers again but does improve off a run and finds an easier race than the Highway event he contended when fresh. Beau Factor has been on fire this time in and will push forward and try to take bad luck out of the equation. The first furlong will be key.
Bet: Tawfiq Lass to win
Miss Kono resumes after winning twice at the provincials last preparation but this is still a Benchmark 74 event so it won’t be a walk in the park for the young horse but she’s on the way up. Yulong Base and Rubic Honour are both in the market but they might be better for today’s runs. The Lion is back off a very long break but if he still has his old talents he’s more than up to this. As is Dreaming For More off a top Highway run.
Bet: The Lion each way
Originally published asTamworth: Tips, Best Bets and Inside Mail
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