While most NFL trades had little, if any, impact on game lines, the 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff between the Broncos and Texans is the exception. Receiver Demaryius Thomas switched sidelines after the Texans gave up a fourth-round pick to the Broncos, bringing in the veteran receiver to help fill the void left after Will Fuller was lost to a torn ACL. Denver was a three-point favorite before the deal, but that line went all the way down to a pick’em after the trade. Now, it’s Denver -1 in the latest Broncos vs. Texans odds, with an Over-Under of 46. Reports say Thomas will start on Sunday, but how effective he’ll be in a new offense remains to be seen. That’s why you’ll want to check out the Broncos vs. Texans picks and projections from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times. In a straight-up, pick’em format, their proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and 2017, performing better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model was a blistering 13-1 straight-up last week. Additionally, it was a strong 6-0 on all top-rated picks in Week 8, including nailing the Redskins (-1) over the Giants and the Seahawks (+3) vs. the Lions. That perfect mark in Week 8 improved its overall run to 68-43 on all top-rated picks. Anybody who has been following these picks is way, way up.
For Texans vs. Broncos, we can tell you the model is leaning toward the Over, and it also has locked in a bold point-spread pick that hits in nearly 55 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model is calling for Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to shake off a foot injury and lead all Houston receivers with six catches for 100 yards and a touchdown on Sunday. But the simulations also point to a significant role for Thomas, who catches four passes for 50 yards in his Houston debut.
Thomas, a ninth-year pro and five-time Pro Bowl selection, gives quarterback Deshaun Watson another experienced target to team with Hopkins. That’ll help balance out a roster that is already 11th in the league in rushing yards per game (123), and top-10 in points allowed (20.9) this season.
However, don’t expect the Demaryius Thomas trade to make the cover a given for the Texans.
Courtland Sutton is expected to step up in his new role as the No. 2 wide receiver in the Mile High City. He’ll have a solid seven-catch, 84-yard day, according to the model. Those number are improvements over Thomas’ season average of 4.5 receptions for 50.25 yards per game.
Additionally, the Texans are just 3-5 against the spread this season and will be without rookie wide receiver Keke Coutee, who’s sidelined with a hamstring injury.
Who wins Broncos vs. Texans? And which side of the spread hits nearly 55 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors over the past two seasons.
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