NFL picks, predictions against the spread for Week 10

Week 9 wasn’t the best week of NFL picks and predictions against the spread. While some favorites fell, others failed to cover against far lesser opponents.

The only thing to do from here is to take it one week at a time, getting better with our game choices starting in Week 10. This week offers some really tight lines with only three teams favored by more than a touchdown, with plenty more one-possession games ahead.

Stats of the Week

Week 9 straight up: 8-5

Week 9 against the spread: 6-7

Season straight up: 86-45

Season against the spread: 80-51

Here’s diving into our latest round of pigskin prognostications with the fearless forecast for the next 14 matchups on the schedule:

Sunday, 4:05p.m. ET, CBS

The Bills’ defense is starting to find its stride in attack mode against the pass and the Cardinals won’t exploit their issues vs.the traditional running game enough. Josh Allen will get to pick apart a bad secondary, buying time with his legs and pushing the ball downfield with his arm. Kyler Murray will do his best to answer with his own brand of running and aggressive downfield throwing, but Allen will get a few more big plays from his receivers. Expect another high-scoring game in the desert, with Arizona barely falling at home again.

Pick:Bills win 38-34

Thursday, 8:20p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network and Amazon Prime Video

The Colts are a hard team to figure out every week because they like to win ugly battles of attrition based on running game and defense, hoping they will get more big plays than mistakes from Philip Rivers. The Titans take a simliar approach, but they have more offensive explosivness playing off the running of Derrick Henry from Ryan Tannehill. Rivers is limited throwing; Tannehill will take more successful deep shots and the Titans get enough field goals.

Pick:Titans win 23-20 and cover the spread.

Sunday, 4:25p.m. ET, Fox

The Seahawks need a win to hold their slimming lead in the NFC West. The Rams will be helped by having a bye to get a little healther. Look for Sean McVay’s team to come out throwing a la the Bills, knowing Seattle has limited coverage answers for Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. Jared Goff will get the ball out quickly as the Rams will also control the clock. On the other side, Aaron Donald will get in the face of Russell Wilson and Jalen Ramsey can help contain DK Metcalf. Los Angeles’ defensive edge makes the difference.

Pick:Rams win 30-27and cover the spread.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox

Mike Tomlin can’t be pleased at how the Steelers’ anemic running game and reeling defense almost cost them a game against the Cowboys. Pittsburgh will be motivated to take out the Dallas frustration on Cincinnati. The Steelers will keep shutting down the run and their pass rush will keep Joe Burrow from exploiting their defensive baksenough for big plays, with the front edge/back middlecombination of T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick causing problems. James Conner rebounds and the Steelers’ passing game gets to comfortable tee-off mode.

Pick:Steelers win 31-17 and cover the spread.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox

Baker Mayfield will need to clear COVID-19 list protocols to play after the bye, but regardless, the Texans have good offensive momentum coming in with Deshaun Watson. He can help elude the pass rush of Myles Garrett and will like the matchups outside to deliver more big plays to Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks. Cleveland will definitely go run-heavy with Kareem Hunt but eventually Mayfield will need to match Watson’s efficiency for the Browns to avoid the shocker. Look for former Brown Duke Johnson Jr. also to have a big role in upending his former team late.

Pick:Texans win 27-24.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox

Let’s watch the health of Matthew Stafford, who was knocked out of the Vikings game. Meanwhile, WFT will need to turn to Alex Smith at quarterback with Kyle Allen suffering his ankle injury. Washington’s pass defense will keep it in the game, but Detroit’s run defense also will get a nice break here. This feels like a sloppy game with little scoring as both teams have little firepower. Flip a coin and go with the hosts in Ford Field, but a Chase Daniel-Smith duel can tilt this toward WFT.

Pick:Lions win 20-19 but fail to cover the spread.

Sunday,1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Packers are coming off a long week, having routed the 49ers in San Francisco in Week 9. The Jaguars got an offensivespark from rookie quarterback Jake Luton but this is his first road start and the Packers are built better to rush the passer than stop the run. Fellow rookie James Robinson’s running will keep the Jaguars in the game early, but Jacksonville will eventually face a big deficit with no answers for Aaron Rodgers to Davante Adams, before worrying about Aaron Jones back at full strength.

Pick:Packers win 38-21 and cover the spread.

Sunday,1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Eagles are coming off a bye. The Giants are coming off a much-needed close win in Washington. They won’t be playing another one-point affair with Philadelphia getting healthier everywhere and New York facing a strong pass rush for Daniel Jones. The Eagles will be close to full juice with their offensive line and their skill players around Carson Wentz.

Pick:Eagles win 27-20 and cover the spread.

Sunday,1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Bucs will not be posting another dud and the Panthers are bound for a letdown after pushing the Chiefs to the brink. The Panthers look like they will be without Christian McCaffrey again, right after getting him back. Tampa Bay will be smart to turn back more to the running game to ease the pressure on Tom Brady and set up more favorable downfield play-action shots to their downfield receivers. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown make up for the Saints game while Teddy Bridgewater gets overwhelmed by the blitz with no CMC.

Pick:Buccaneers win 34-17 and cover the spread.

Sunday, 4:05p.m. ET, CBS

The Raiders will do their best to run on Denver but that’s one of strength of Vic Fangio’s defense. Derek Carr is playing very well and will stay aggressive looking for big plays inside and outside. Drew Lock is also finding his groove with his Broncos’ weapons and will lock into his third straight shootout in Las Vegas. He’ll also get good help from the ground game to set up some good work to the middle of the field.

Pick:Raiders win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.

Sunday, 4:05p.m. ET, CBS

Tua Tagovailoa, taken No. 5 overall to be the Dolphins’ franchise quarterback, is 2-0 as a starter. Justin Herbert, taken one pick later to be the Chargers’ franchise quarterback, is somehow 1-6 as a starter despite his consistent, elite rookie passing. Tagovailoa is being lifted by a big playmaking defense that keeps getting better every week under Brian Flores. The Chargers’ defense is starting to look equally lost against run and pass because of injuries and other issues. This is a very tough long road trip. Tagovailoa gets more help, protects the ball well while Herbert is forced into big mistakes that offset his big plays.

Pick:Dolphins win 27-24and cover the spread.

Sunday, 4:25p.m. ET, Fox

The 49ers will get some offensive help back at wide receiver but they still need to replace running back and tight end by committee. Despite his struggles with turnovers, Nick Mullens will get another start filling in for Jimmy Garoppolo over C.J. Beathard. The 49ers’ pass rush isn’t the same without Nick Bosa and they have too many issues in coverage at both linebacker and the secondary. Look for Drew Brees to keep spreading the ball around quickly and the Saints’ defense will continue to be stout against the run, setting up pressure on Mullens in catchup mode.

Pick:Saints win 30-17 and cover the spread.

Sunday, 8:20p.m. ET, NBC

Lamar Jackson is struggling to pass and isn’t getting much help from the traditional running game. The Patriots drafted and rebuilt their defense to better contain running QBs. They will work to take away that element and force the Ravens to grind out yards, not worrying much about big plays downfield. The Patriots, unfortunately, can’t trust Cam Newton to be in comfortable passing or running situations against the Ravens’ defense, either.

Pick:Ravens win 20-14but fail to cover the spread.

Monday, 8:15p.m. ET, ESPN

The Vikings have been rolling by feeding Dalvin Cook, both taking pressure of Kirk Cousins and making life easier on a defense having major secondary issues. It’s much easier to run on the Bears than force throwing on them, which plays into the hands of Mike Zimmer’s game plan. The Bears will have some success throwing with Nick Foles to Allen Robinson and others, but they will be too one-dimensional with Foles feeling enough heat to make more mistakes.

Pick:Vikings win 23-20 and cover the spread.

Source: Read Full Article