Last week, the top BetQL bets went a solid 3-1, with the Ravens being the only loss. This week the models are giving the Ravens another chance and are looking to ride two of the hottest teams in the league who are on the road (Chiefs and Rams). In our Week 9 NFL odds, gambling trends, and line movement article, we’ll look at the top value bets, biggest public favorites/underdogs, and largest home favorites to target or fade, as well as a couple over/unders that stand out.
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Week 9 NFL odds, betting trends
*All Screenshots are from the BetQL Trending Value Bets Page
Value Bet of the Week: Baltimore Ravens (-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Last week, the Ravens really let us down by putting up a flat effort in their loss to the Panthers, but we’re looking to go right back to them this week in their divisional matchup with the Steelers. The Ravens have been dominate against the spread versus Pittsburgh over the past three years, going 5-1 ATS. Pittsburgh is also coming in as the second-largest public favorite of the week, garnering 84 percent of public tickets. The BetQL models are looking to fade the public in this spot and take Baltimore as three-point home favorites. Also consider better the UNDER of 47.5, as the total has gone under in five of their past eight matchups.
WEEK 9 NFL PICKS: Straight up | ATS
Largest Public Favorite: Kansas City Chiefs (-9) at Cleveland Browns
While we’re looking to fade the public with the Ravens, it would be silly to look to fade the largest public favorite of the week as the Chiefs head to Cleveland to face a Browns team that is in crisis mode after the firing of head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley. The Chiefs have been dominate against the spread this season, going 7-1, with their first ATS loss coming last week to the Broncos. The key matchup to watch in this one is the Browns struggling offense against a Chiefs defense that has shown significant improvement over the last three weeks.
Largest Line Movement: Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
The largest line movement of the week is the Cowboys, who have seen their spread against the Titans move 2.5 points from its -4 open to where it currently sits at -6.5. It’s easy to see why the public is throwing money at Dallas, who is coming off their bye week to face a Titans team that has looked abysmal on the offensive side of the ball. The public is likely enamored with the Cowboys acquisition of WR Amari Cooper, who is finally free from Jon Gruden in Oakland. Dallas has also been excellent at home this season, going 3-0 straight up and 2-1 ATS at Jerry World this year.
Road Underdog of the Week: Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
The road underdog of the week comes in with the headline game between the Rams and Saints. The Rams have been mediocre against the spread this season, going only 4-3-1. However, this is the Rams first game as an underdog, and there’s a ton of value taking them either with the points or as a plus-105 ML underdog. The Rams are expected to have slot WR Cooper Kupp back for this game, which could be key given the Saints struggles with interior pass catchers. The books are also daring us to take the under in this game by putting the total all the way up at 59.5 points, which is the highest total we’ve seen in the last 14 years.
The BetQL Mobile App’s Trending Picks and Public Betting tools offer a massive advantage when you’re making bets. Check me out on Twitter (@DFSBenj) for even more NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA daily fantasy and sports betting content.
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