The undefeated Welsh have the Six Nations title in their sights

Wales will be chasing a Grand Slam in Paris tomorrow night as the Guinness Six Nations continues.

Victory over France in Paris would secure the title for Wayne Pivac’s team – who were outsiders before the tournament began.

The key for Wales in their run to four wins so far has been their ability to exploit Red Zone efficiency – scoring more points when in the attacking 22 – which the QBE Risk & Reward Index highlights is the lead performance indicator with the strongest correlation to success.

Independent Sport has teamed up with QBE Business Insurance to provide a unique look at a new data tool which shows how rugby teams trade off risk taking and risk mitigation in order to win the tournament.

Developed by QBE and rugby performance analysts, the QBE Risk & Reward Index goes deeper than conventional rugby analysis by considering the role that defensive and attack risk taking has through a number of key performance indicators.

Whilst France has had more entries into the attacking 22 than Wales, they have not been as successful as the Welsh in converting them into points, with les Bleus averaging a Red Zone efficiency of 1.58 across the tournament, with Wales achieving the highest efficiency rating of 2.51.

England World Cup winner and QBE ambassador Lawrence Dallaglio, who is analysing the Risk & Reward Index for Independent Sport says: “Wales adopted an effective risk strategy to win rugby matches by tight margins with a ruthless efficiency in attack, conceding less points, better discipline and a very strong defence. France are resurgent and playing with attacking flair, and could win in a tight game – but the momentum is with Wales.”

A French victory would keep hopes of winning the title alive if they can then win the tournament’s final match – the rearranged game with Scotland.

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