Our tipster Jones Knows remains in healthy profit for the season and thinks Leeds vs Brighton is ripe for a shot-frenzy game on Saturday. He has eyes on a 6/1 shot.
How did we get on in midweek?
Close but no cigar.
Leandro Dendoncker to score in a Wolves win at 12/1 gave us a good run for our money. With the game poised at 1-1, Dendoncker had two shots on goal (four in total during the match) but he just lacked a bit of composure at a crucial time. The chances are coming his way and he will land one soon. He remains overpriced to score.
Burnley to avoid defeat and Ben Mee to have a shot at 11/2 also had plenty to be positive about without actually landing. Mee had a shot inside 10 minutes so it was a case of Burnley trying to repel United to get a result, which they achieved for the large majority. Darn you, Paul Pogba.
So, two points lost in our battle but they were “good losers” to throw on the pile. We remain firmly in profit and a winner is not far away using the same logic.
- Jones Knows: Premier League predictions
I have got three bets on the menu this weekend with a focus on the showdown from Anfield. Let’s come home a winner.
Remember, whatever I tip here, I back – we are in this together comrades.
P+L = +17.5
Leeds vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League – 1pt on the game to have 35 or more shots (6/1 with Sky Bet – bet here!)
This game has all the ingredients to explode into a typically mad Leeds encounter. I have absolutely no strong opinion on which way the game will go but I am confident there will be shots. So many shots.
Games involving Leeds have produced the most shots combined of any club in the Premier League. In fact, Marcelo Bielsa’s team have featured in the top four matches for total shots in a match this season (43 vs Manchester United, 39 vs Aston Villa, 38 vs Everton and 38 vs Tottenham). Also, six of the nine Premier League games with 35 or more shots this season have involved Leeds.
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No matter who you are, it is likely you are going to get dragged into a gung-ho encounter full of incident and chances. Brighton will not be able to resist. Although none of their games have featured over 27 match shots this season, Graham Potter’s team rank seventh for most shots in the Premier League (221) while only Liverpool have had more shots than Leeds (259). They may not be famed for their ruthlessness in front of goal but Brighton do create chances.
An early goal could send this game into chaos mode and Sky Bet’s line of the game to produce 28 or more shots at 10/11 looks a steal. But short prices are not our thing is this parish so I am happy to row in with the 6/1 for 35 or more shots line.
Liverpool vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League
1pt on Scott McTominay to pick up the first booking (12/1 with Sky Bet – bet here!)
One area of football betting I have found to be quite profitable in recent years is the cards markets. The stats will tell you that Scott McTominay has yet to be booked this season but he has committed 22 fouls, averaging over 2.2 fouls per 90 minutes.
Unsurprisingly, he has committed the most fouls without being booked of any current Premier League player this season. If you stretch it back to last season he is on a run of 31 fouls without since being booked after 24 seconds on Boxing Day in 2019 vs Newcastle – which is the quickest booking since Opta started collating data in 2006.
No doubt he will be tasked with breaking up Liverpool’s play in midfield this weekend in what is likely to be a niggly encounter. Liverpool always pack plenty of physicality and punch in their midfield and 12 opposition central midfielders have been booked vs Liverpool in their last 14 Premier League games (Douglas Luiz, Allan, Andre Gomes, Sander Berger, John Lundstram, Declan Rice, Nampalys Mendy, Joao Moutinho, Mario Lemina, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Giovani Lo Celso and Isaac Hayden).
At 12/1 McTominay is worth an interest to get carded first, or those that can handle backing short prices in this market should look at the 23/10 for him to be carded anytime.
1pt on Harry Maguire to score a header (20/1 with Sky Bet – bet here!)
Those that know me or have worked with me down the years know nothing gives me more pleasure than backing centre-backs to score at double figure odds.
Harry Maguire is defined by me as a penalty box beast when going up for corners – and he owes me a day in the sun.
Remember when John Stones scored twice for England at the World Cup vs Panama? I backed Maguire. Remember when Maguire scored vs Sweden in the quarter-final at 33/1? I backed Stones.
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Maguire has had the most shots on goal of any defender in the Premier League this season (21) and with 10 of those coming via a header. His data suggests he should have really scored more than just the one he got at Newcastle with his expected goals numbers backing that up. I am quite surprised to see Sky Bet offering such a juicy price considering he had one, wrongfully, disallowed at Burnley. That will be fresh in the memory for those looking for a big-price angle.
Plus, Liverpool are not the same defensive beast at defending set plays without Virgil van Dijk, especially if Joel Matip does not play. Semi Ajayi and Michael Keane have both managed to score via headers this season against Liverpool. United have had the most shots via set pieces of any Premier League team this season (59). Come on, Harry. Do the business.
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