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There are so many ways to describe the Roosters’ win over the Sharks last week: courageous, tough, improbable. Even days later, I still don’t know how they won.
But the cold hard truth is that match wasn’t anywhere near semi-final standard. We’ve all been swept up in the way they managed to win with Joseph Manu and Joseph Suaalii not finishing the game, James Tedesco spending 10 minutes in the sin bin and back-rowers defending in the centres. That’s all true.
Yet I don’t think the formline will stand up this week against Melbourne. The Broncos-Storm final was light years ahead of the Roosters-Sharks game in terms of quality and the way I see it, it’s almost going to be impossible for the Roosters to beat Melbourne at AAMI Park on Friday night.
You just don’t see the Storm play that badly two games in a row. Cameron Munster and Harry Grant were quiet against the Broncos, but Melbourne’s big challenge is in the forwards. Watch the way Payne Haas, Pat Carrigan and Tom Flegler constantly bent the Storm defensive line last week. It’s not often you see Melbourne players being left on the ground at the ruck, but the speed and power of the Broncos was just too much for them to handle.
There’s no better coach at exposing a frailty in an opposition and Craig Bellamy will go at the Roosters’ two halves, Sam Walker and Luke Keary, who are among the smallest in the competition.
Combine that with new centre combinations – Paul Momirovski and Corey Allan have been named this week – and the Storm will be targeting the area where the halves and centres will be defending.
The Roosters will be trying to keep their season alive in Melbourne.Credit: Getty
Where do the Roosters’ points come from? It’s a good question. I can’t see them scoring more than one try per half. That leaves them with 10 or 12 points at most. And I can see the Storm racking up 20-30 points with the dry conditions.
Cameron Munster will stand up. He won’t be as bad as he was last week. It all points to a big Melbourne win.
Joey’s tip: Storm by 20
First try-scorer: Harry Grant
Man of the match: Cameron Munster
SJ versus KP in battle of the superstars
Who’s going to own the big moments: Shaun Johnson or Kalyn Ponga? I think the result of the Warriors and Knights semi-final will come down to which of the two superstars can do the business when it matters.
There’s a case to say both of them could be fighting it out for the Dally M medal in a couple of weeks’ time. I know Ponga missed a lot of the first half of the season through his concussion lay-off, but in Newcastle’s nine-game winning streak before the finals, he would have gone close to polling maximum votes almost every week.
But the Dally M won’t matter to either of them, they’ll just be desperate to win this week.
This is Newcastle’s biggest test since their win over the Storm back in July. They’re coming off a really tough victory against the Raiders which went to extra time. You can’t underestimate the physical and mental toll that would have taken on them.
Kalyn Ponga tore the Raiders to shreds on the right in the second half on Sunday.Credit: NRL Photos
For whatever reason, they looked flat in the first half against Canberra. Maybe it was expectation? But they can’t let that happen again over in Auckland.
The combination between Ponga and Tyson Gamble really got the Knights back into the game. I’ll admit, I thought Gamble was just a fringe first-grader when he came to the club. That’s unfair. He’s got a lot more class than that. And he’s really stood up with Jackson Hastings having his injury problems over the last month.
Sunday’s Newcastle crowd.
The winner will be the team which can keep the scoreboard ticking when they have possession and field position. The other side of the coin is, who will scramble best in defence?
I’ve got the Knights winning by two in a close one. We can only hope!
Newcastle crowd at its best
Of all my years of going to McDonald Jones Stadium or the old Marathon Stadium, I’ve never seen a better atmosphere than for last week’s final against the Raiders.
Thinking about the crowd as Dom Young raced down the sideline is still giving me goosebumps.
The one thing about a Newcastle crowd is they’re well educated. In the first half, they picked up on the anxiety of the team. But once the Jack Wighton bite happened, it lifted the crowd.
I thought it was one of the great days in the club’s history and it made a lot of people happy.
Cleary, Reynolds on track for grand showdown
I don’t think it matters who wins this week, it’s hard to see anything but a Penrith-Brisbane grand final. If that’s the case, then we’re in for some treat with the best attacking team against the best defensive team.
In big games, your big guns stand up. Nathan Cleary is an absolute champion. Last week’s qualifying final win over the Warriors was the best all-round game I’ve seen him play – and that’s saying something. I thought with Jarome Luai out he might be a little more conservative, but it’s been the opposite. He knows his side has lost a little bit of flair and X-factor and he thought, ‘right, I’ll make up the difference’.
His try when he showed the ball to several teammates to turn under, and then knowing the exact moment to run himself and where the best gap was to exploit, was sublime. He was in total control of his game and the match as a whole.
Adam Reynolds’ big-game experience is similarly important for the Broncos. The way he landed that 45-metre kick on a dime over Cameron Munster’s head was the exact reason the Broncos bought him. His side just looks fit, fast, powerful and hungry. That’s scary for any opposition.
We might be in for a grand final for the ages.
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