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Melbourne are wondering how they find a key forward, or at least find a functioning forward line. But the semi-final is as likely to be decided by their full-back, not their full-forward.
Charlie Curnow on Steven May is the final within the final. It promises to be an epic Carey-Jakovich style dual. It will be the best individual contest of the finals series, given how critical it will be to the chances of either playing in a preliminary final.
The clash between Charlie Curnow and Steven May will be compelling viewing again.Credit: Getty Images
In two relatively even teams across the field, Curnow is the point of difference. Carlton have a May in Jacob Weitering, but Melbourne have no Charlie Curnow up forward. And with Harry McKay out of the Blues’ team with concussion the importance of Curnow is acute.
Yes, the Blues can win even if Curnow is subdued. Curnow kicked just two goals when the Blues beat Melbourne in round 22 in what was a fascinating tussle with May. But can Melbourne win if Curnow gets off the chain against May? They have Jake Lever as a go-to, but May is the key.
May has the strength and guile if not the same athleticism as Curnow. On Thursday night Brody Mihocek ran May up and down the ground to work him over to exhaust him and deny him the scope to zone off and intercept mark. Curnow would be unlikely to play it quite the same way, but he will work May to areas to try to stop the double-teaming of Lever coming across to help out.
Brodie Grundy.Credit: Getty Images
At the other end the Demons’ scoring problems are clear, with Jake Melksham and Harrison Petty out, Bayley Fritsch on one foot and now Brodie Grundy likely to be the man to come back in to fashion an attack with a rotating forward target of some kind.
Melbourne’s problem from the outset – as it has been for much of the year – will be kicking a big enough score and if Curnow gets away and kicks a bag that concern is naturally magnified.
Carlton have shown this year they can function as well if not better at times without McKay for the freedom it gives Curnow. But the first two finals have also already shown the games are tighter and grittier than in the season and that space is harder to get.
When Angus Brayshaw was knocked out on Thursday night it denied Melbourne the chance to use Christian Petracca forward as much as they wanted to because he was needed to help fill the gap of Brayshaw going out.
The temptation for Melbourne would be that after bringing in a replacement for Brayshaw – probably James Jordon – that they consider their own point of difference player in Petracca at full-forward.
Maybe Melbourne borrow from Denis Pagan and turn the ground into Petracca’s Paddock. Or indeed borrow from Damien Hardwick in how they used Dustin Martin.
The Demons could pull their forwards high up the ground and isolate Petracca deep forward. That would unsettle even the best defenders.
Clayton Oliver’s return to form, as shown on Thursday night, enables that sort of move. It suits Grundy as a forward to also be playing high up the ground and working more as a link player than true goal-kicker. Tom McDonald is struggling and would be best served playing as a defensive forward on Weitering.
Of course, there are difficulties with the Petracca’s Paddock in modern footy. The first is that for large chunks of Thursday night’s game all 36 players were inside the 50-metre arc. In the last quarter they were all in Melbourne’s third of the ground. That makes isolating anyone impossible, but to the extent that they can, they should try to isolate Petracca as a target, he is the most dynamic player on the ground
Role-player finals
If Will Hoskin-Elliott was not the last player picked for Collingwood, he was close to it in a team with few injuries and pressure for positions. An occasional sub this year, his attraction is he can play multiple roles.
Will Hoskin-Elliott and coach Craig McRae, after the win over Melbourne.Credit: AFL Photos
If he has played a better, more consequential, game than Thursday night it does not come readily to mind. He was superb, being moved into defence for his ability to mark but also run and carry the ball creatively.
He was also emblematic of what was a finals round where supporting actors delivered encore performances. Jake Bowey for the Demons was similarly unheralded but extremely damaging. While the focus is on the Demons’ plethora of players with All-Australian gongs, Bowey quietly delivered in a final with creative run and dare.
Blake Acres, who was no guarantee to be fit for the elimination final, was tremendous. He’s had a good season, but it’s doubtful he has played better than Friday night. Some independent fans would have struggled to pick Matt Cottrell out of a line-up before Friday night, but they will now. With two goals, he delivered well beyond anything the Blues could have hoped or bargained for. Brodie Kemp and Caleb Marchbank’s understated game should not be undersold.
Ross Lyon and St Kilda are clear on what the list requires.Credit: AFL Photos
Saints’ way forward
Only 0.7 per cent separated GWS and St Kilda at season’s end. Same number of wins, same losses. Both had new coaches. One, new boy Adam Kingsley, came to the season without expectation.
Ross Lyon, Kingsley’s old mentor when he was a Saints assistant, returned to the Saints and engendered hope and, as much as they attempted to douse it, expectation. After the elimination final and the exposure of a clear gulf in skill and class with the way GWS moved the ball and scythed through St Kilda, there was a sense of the teams finding their truer level.
Regardless of whether conclusions are drawn from Saturday, St Kilda are clear already on the surgery the list requires to be true flag contender.
The Saints will probably secure Liam Henry from Fremantle, albeit Hawthorn are in the market too, and he will help remedy their speed and ball use deficit.
Anything could yet happen at Melbourne, but it would be doubtful Grundy will be there next year unless his return to the side in the finals delivers a stunning turnaround and he plays in a flag.
St Kilda should at least kick the tyres of getting the former All-Australian. Kieren Briggs was outstanding in the ruck for GWS on Saturday and beat Rohan Marshall.
Marshall is a good player, but he could prove to be a better forward and second ruck than first ruck. His best footy was playing with Paddy Ryder in the team with him. Picking up Grundy relatively cheaply and releasing Marshall to play in tandem with Max King has great appeal.
Kingsley’s Giant step forward
Adam Kingsley is this year’s Craig McRae. The former colleagues in the Richmond coaches box, he has done what McRae did last year with Collingwood and lifted the Giants from 16th to a semi-final and the sort of game and form that they will not stop there.
Adam Kingsley has the Giants firing.Credit: AFL Photos
Kingsley has the Giants playing with the run and daring that has been lost in recent years. Josh Kelly on a wing, Finn Callaghan, Lachie Ash, Lachie Whitfield off half-back had too much run for the Saints and their ball use was on a level above most teams, not just the Saints.
It meant their ability to run, overlap with handball and then find a forward target with low flat spearing passes made them extremely difficult to defend. They didn’t just go for the long kick to Jesse Hogan, they searched out others.
It is the round of finals to fall out of love with the higher finishing losers and in love with low finishing winners, but there was something of the way that GWS have learnt to play in the second half of the year, as shown on Saturday that says Port will be up against it.
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