Champions League permutations: Who needs what to reach the last 16?

Champions League PERMUTATIONS: Man United are out if they lose tonight, Newcastle must win their last game – and will cheer on Borussia Dortmund. Plus how every team can join the 10 who are already through

  • The Champions League has provided plenty of drama across recent months
  • Several teams are battling it out to secure their spot in the knockout stages 
  • Pressure is easing on Man United boss Erik ten Hag: Listen to It’s All Kicking Off 

It’s crunch time in the Champions League as several sides battle it out to reach the last 16 stage.

After an action-packed night on Tuesday, we are all set to go again on Wednesday when teams will be able to ensure they remain in Europe’s elite club competition into the New Year.

Last night, Atletico Madrid, Lazio, Borussia Dortmund and Barcelona picked up crucial wins to qualify.

They joined six other sides – Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Real Sociedad, Inter Milan, Man City and RB Leipzig – in having a spot in the knockout stages, with just six places left.

In light of that and the group stage coming to a conclusion, Mail Sport takes a look at the latest Champions League permutations.   

Manchester City are one of 10 sides to have qualified from the Champions League group stage

But the hopes of Newcastle and Manchester United reaching the last 16 hang in the balance

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Group A – Bayern Munich, FC Copenhagen, Galatasaray, Man United

While Bayern Munich have romped to qualification with four wins from four, the battle to join them is one of the most exciting in the competition. 

Three disastrous defeats for Man United have left them bottom of the group, one point behind Galatasaray and FC Copenhagen.

United face a tricky trip to Turkey tonight, needing to win to keep their qualification hopes in their own hands.

A draw wouldn’t eliminate them, but it would leave them relying on other results in the final matchday and they would also be required to beat Bayern.

If they lose against the Turkish giants, they will be out and even if they won both games and Copenhagen beat Bayern and Galatasaray, they would be eliminated.

It promises to go down to the wire.  

Man United are up against it in their attempts to qualify for the competition’s knockout stages

Group A – Bayern Munich, FC Copenhagen, Galatasaray, Man United

Group B – Arsenal, PSV, Lens, Sevilla

Arsenal are in a superb position to reach the knockout stages on their return to the Champions League.

A draw against Lens will be enough for them to do just that, while their fate could be sealed beforehand if PSV lose to Sevilla in the early kick off. 

If the Gunners beat Lens at the Emirates, they will be guaranteed top spot as they currently hold a four-point advantage over PSV and the French side.

Those two sides are likely to battle it out for the second qualification spot, with Sevilla on just two points.

They are struggling to even make it into their beloved Europa League. 

Arsenal are one point away from qualifying for the last 16 on their return to the competition

Group B – Arsenal, PSV, Lens, Sevilla

Group C – Real Madrid, Napoli, Braga, Union Berlin

14-time winners Real Madrid need just a point from two games to secure top spot after four wins from four.

Napoli are well-placed to join them in the last 16 and they require a sole victory from their final two games.

They could secure qualification tonight if they beat Real and also if Braga lose at home to Union Berlin, with the Portuguese side four points worse off than the Italian champions.

However, if Braga only draw against the struggling German outfit, a point will be enough for Napoli at the Bernabeu. 

Braga and Napoli face off in the final group game in Napoli which could also prove to be a shootout for qualification. 

A Jude Bellingham-inspired Real Madrid have four wins from four games in the group stage

Group C – Real Madrid, Napoli, Braga, Union Berlin

Group D – Real Sociedad, Inter Milan, RB Salzburg, Benfica

In one of the few groups that already has qualification sorted, Real Sociedad and Inter Milan are level on 10 points in first and second place respectively.

The only points they dropped were in the original clash between the teams which ended in a 1-1 draw and the return fixture in Italy in a few weeks time will decide who tops the group.

Salzburg and Benfica are battling it out for the Europa League spot in third, with the Portuguese outfit yet to even pick up a point.

However, the Austrian side – who travel to Real Sociedad tonight – could secure that if they better Benfica’s result against Inter Milan.

Inter Milan (pictured) and Real Sociedad have dominated and will battle it out for top spot

Group D – Real Sociedad, Inter Milan, RB Salzburg, Benfica

Group E – Atletico Madrid, Lazio, Feyenoord, Celtic

Group E onwards played their fifth matchday of the competition on Tuesday, meaning lots is already finalised.

This group is one of them with Atletico Madrid’s win over Feyenoord and Lazio’s victory over Celtic meaning they are both guaranteed to finish in the top two.

Meanwhile, Feyenoord are locked into third and unfortuantely for Celtic their defeat against Lazio means they will finish bottom after just one point from five games.

The only thing left to settle is who will finish top, with Atletico set to host Lazio in Madrid in two weeks time.

After another difficult evening in Europe, Celtic are guaranteed to finish bottom of Group E

Group E – Atletico Madrid, Lazio, Feyenoord, Celtic

Group F – Borussia Dortmund, PSG, Newcastle, AC Milan

After the draw was made, this was widely dubbed as the ‘group of death’ and it has duly lived up to expectations with several twists and turns throughout. 

On Tuesday, Borussia Dortmund secured a significant 3-1 victory over AC Milan, while PSG earned a last-gasp 1-1 draw with Newcastle.

As a result, Dortmund sit top on seven points, three clear of PSG, who in turn are two points ahead of both Newcastle and Milan.

It is all to play for on the final matchday when the Parisians travel to Germany and Newcastle host Milan.

Newcastle’s dramatic draw with PSG on Tuesday night means it is all to play for in Group F

Group F – Borussia Dortmund, PSG, Newcastle, AC Milan

Dortmund will be in the knockout stages, but must avoid defeat in their final group game to finish top. 

PSG are guaranteed at least third whatever happens, but they if they win in Dortmund they will top the group.

If they lose, they will be relying on Milan and Newcastle drawing. But if they draw and Milan win they will be OK, but if Newcastle win they will drop down to the Europa League.

This is due to their head-to-head record, with PSG having lost and drawn to the Magpies, while they won one and lost one against the Italian side but had a combined score of 4-2 in their favour.

Group G – Man City, RB Leipzig, Young Boys, Crvena Zvezda

While this group lacked drama, the final touches were put to it on Tuesday after an entertaining night of action. 

Man City enjoyed a comeback victory over Leipzig after being 2-0 down at half time, meaning they have won all five of their games.

Leipzig had already qualified ahead of kick off so they are guaranteed to finish in second.

Meanwhile, Young Boys beat Crvena Zvezda, commonly known as Red Star Belgrade, 2-0, to ensure they will progress to the Europa League.

Holders Man City romped home to top their group after five victories from five games 

Group G – Man City, RB Leipzig, Young Boys, Crvena Zvezda

Group H – Barcelona, Porto, Shakhtar Donetsk, Antwerp

Despite their supposed struggles in recent weeks, Barcelona went through last night after a 2-1 win over Porto.

Shakhtar Donetsk kept up the pressure on the Portuguese side with a 1-0 victory over Royal Antwerp, who are without a point after five successive defeats.  

The Ukrainian outfit take on Porto in a mouthwatering final match with both sides level on nine points.

Barcelona look set to finish first in their group after a hard-fought victory over Porto

Group H – Barcelona, Porto, Shakhtar Donetsk, Antwerp

Porto won the first meeting 3-1, meaning they have the edge on head-to-head and only need to draw, but Shakhtar must win.

Whatever happens, Barcelona look set for top spot given their head-to-head superiority on Porto, while they also have a goal difference advantage of seven on Shakhtar.

Meanwhile, they face the struggling Antwerp in their final game and only require a point to be guaranteed first place.  

IT’S ALL KICKING OFF! 

It’s All Kicking Off is an exciting new podcast from Mail Sport that promises a different take on Premier League football.

It is available on MailOnline, Mail+, YouTube, Apple Music and Spotify.

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